When polled on what issue matters the most to American voters, the economy emerges victorious time and time again. As a result of this, one would expect the party that consistently outperforms the other during respective administrative periods on key economic indicators, including GDP growth, employment and national debt reduction, to have an advantage during election season. However, contrary to expectations, it appears that the opposite is true, both in the past and in the 2024 U.S. election, where Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, defeated Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate. What could be the reason behind this result? This article will explore some contributing factors, including geopolitics, election campaigns and party loyalty.
Based on historical trends and statistics, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, no Republican president has decreased the unemployment rate in their time in office since President Reagan, who ended his second term in 1989. Ever since Reagan, the GOP has faced challenges when it comes to this issue. It peaked under President Trump’s first term who experienced a net loss of about 2.7 million jobs. Nonetheless, the significant factor of the COVID-19 pandemic means no comprehensive conclusion may be drawn from the statistics regarding the sole role of the Republican office on unemployment. In contrast, Democratic presidents have decreased the unemployment rate more than all of their Republican counterparts - except for Reagan - for almost a century. Considering GDP growth and national debt reduction as a fraction of GDP, with the exception of Barack Obama, who served during the Great Recession, leads to the same conclusion: under the Democrats, the economy seems to flourish more.
So why is it that voters prefer Trump over Harris on the economy for the 2024 U.S. election? Could it be that the Biden-Harris administration is an outlier when it comes to the aforementioned pattern, leaving a stain on Harris’ image? Comparing the Trump-Pence administration to the Biden-Harris administration shows that the latter outperform the former on job growth, national debt reduction, and GDP growth. However, inflation rate was significantly higher under Biden-Harris than it was under Trump-Pence. This was partly the result of global inflation. Incumbents generally struggle to deviate from global inflation. For the U.S., it is no different, as U.S. inflation has nearly matched global inflation 1:1 for decades now. However, this does not make a good narrative, thus the Republican campaign has resorted to shifting the blame onto the Biden-Harris administration. This strategy has proven to be effective: CBS polls found the majority of voters recall the economy to be more favourable under Trump-Pence than under Biden-Harris. Voters also claim that they believe Trump’s policies were and will be more effective, despite historical trends suggesting otherwise. Experienced inflation appears to outweigh all other economic factors.
Causes of U.S. inflation, however, are not often discussed. As discussed, global inflation was a key reason, but this poses the following question: what causes global inflation? The increased price of oil plays a consequential role, as it is essential for human and goods transportation. Oil prices are geopolitically sensitive, and they have risen greatly since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as following the recent escalating tensions in the Middle East. While U.S. foreign policy is largely bipartisan, the Trump-Pence administration served as an indirect cause for conflicts in the Middle East escalated greatly. This escalation was a result of several key decisions: the signing of the Abraham Accords; the recognition of the illegally annexed Golan Heights as Israeli land; the assassination of Iranian general Qasem Soleimani; the relocation of the American Embassy to Jerusalem. All of these decisions influenced dynamics in the region and are considered to be instigators for the October 7 Attack and all subsequent escalations which have heightened concerns over the oil supply chain and rising oil prices. Under the Biden-Harris administration, none of these actions were reversed, and the U.S. continued to intervene in the Middle Eastern conflicts and support Israel. Therefore, the responsibility for these tensions does not solely rest with the Trump-Pence Administration. As this cause of inflation is not often discussed and disregarded in the election campaigns, blame intuitively lands on the incumbent party: the Democratic Party.
Voter preferences, however, most likely do not just fall back on current prices. It is reasonable to assume that voters cared about economic policies that the candidates campaigned on. For instance, Harris’ economic campaign mainly focused on battling price gouging (the unnecessary and unjust raising of prices by corporations), giving tax cuts to small businesses and new parents, allowing more negotiations to lower drug prices, and financially supporting first-time homebuyers. Trump campaigned on cutting taxes across the board, implementing protectionist policies such as tariffs, and reducing gas prices by drilling for oil. What do Americans think about these policies? Perhaps unsurprisingly, it turns out that they tend to support the party they are registered to vote for when told which policy belongs to whom. In polls where only policies are presented, and party is omitted, the majority of the voters actually favour the Democrats. The only non-bipartisan economic policies Trump has majority support in are increasing domestic production of oil and essential goods, and tax cuts across the board. This indicates that voters tend to prioritise supporting the party they are registered to vote for than the policies, taking into account the election outcome.
Ultimately, it seems the narrative that Trump would build a better economy than Harris stemmed from the effective Republican campaign around the U.S. inflation which weakened the image of the Democrats, and ineffective Democratic messaging failing to address the underlying causes behind inflation. Voters’ party loyalty was also detrimental to Harris for the 2024 U.S. election, as it appears that her economic policies are preferred in blind polling.